Who creates middle-skill jobs? Who researches and innovates, who sells, manages, takes out
loans to build a business, and saves for a rainy day. Who pays for the
education of employees in middle-skill jobs? Those hard questions have
to be asked at the same time the call goes out to give everyone an
equal chance at a good paying job.
The truth is that middle-skill jobs, which require more than a high school
education but less than a four-year degree, currently make up the largest segment
of jobs in the U.S. economy, and will continue to do so for years to come.
Why look at California's jobs? With a gross state product of $1.8 trillion dollars, California is the eighth largest economy in the world, ahead of global powerhouses like Russia, Canada,
India and Mexico. That's a lot of Americans!
California faces deep, systemic economic problems today that threaten to undermine the programs, policies and industries that have long made us strong. Ranking as a national innovator is slipping. With layoffs, state budget cuts, housing foreclosures and business shutdowns dominating headlines for the past year, some may believe California's economy has gone into a permanent decline.
The way out is to keep the workforce ready for tomorrow's jobs. Which jobs?
Middle-skill jobs represent the largest share
of jobs in California--some 49 percent--
and the largest share of future job openings.
Addressing the need for middle-skill workers will require attention not only to educational opportunities for young people, but also for those already in the workforce.
Fifty-eight percent of the people who will be in California's workforce in the year 2020 were already working adults in 2005--long past the traditional high school-to-college pipeline.
About 2.7 million "middle-skill" jobs will be created
in the state by 2016, according to the study, "California's Forgotten
Middle-skill Jobs" (Oct 2009) by the Workforce Alliance, Skills2Compete and the California EDGE Campaign. Who are middle-skill workers?The term middle-skill refers to the level of education required by a particular job. It should not be confused with the actual competence and capacity of workers and occupations--many middle-skill occupations require highly skilled trade and technical workers with several years of training and on-the-job experience.
Middle-skill jobs refer to those that require more than a high school
diploma but less than a four-year college degree. They include jobs in
construction, healthcare, law enforcement and many other fields.
"Federal funds from the stimulus bill are
expected to create new jobs and many of these will be middle-skill,
especially in green jobs, construction, manufacturing and
transportation," the report says. "Matching the skills of our workforce
to meet this demand will help our economy recover more quickly and
prepare us for better times ahead."
The report calculates that about HALF OF ALL JOBS in California fell into the middle-skill category in
2008, and predicts that about 43% of all job openings in the next seven
years will be middle-skill.
Low-skill jobs will account for a quarter
of all job openings over the same time period,
High-skill jobs will
make up 32% of openings.
The problem: A shortage of middle-skill
workers could develop because the state has cut back on the training of
those skills. State budget cuts have drastically reduced funding to
community colleges and adult education centers, for example.
STEM: Science, Technology, Engineering and Math
Policymakers have become increasingly concerned about U.S. global competitiveness in recent years, and a broad consensus has developed about the need for a strong science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) workforce to support innovation industries and emerging technologies. In particular, business and political leaders have called for increasing the number of students receiving bachelor or advanced degrees in these fields.
However, these highly skilled professionals aren't the only STEM workers in short supply. Employers have indicated there is a significant shortage of the technicians and middle-skill workers needed to implement the new technologies developed by highly skilled innovators. In California between 2006 and 2016 among STEM occupations that are expected to have worker shortages, there will be 18,460 job openings annually that will require an associate degree and 3,590 that will require some other level of postsecondary vocational education short of an associate degree.
This adds up to 44.2 percent of all STEM jobs in occupations with expected shortages.
Recommendations
The study urges the state to ensure that every Californian has access to the equivalent of two years of education or training past high school that leads to a vocational credential, industry certification, or one's first two years of college.
This training must be available at whatever point and pace makes sense for individual workers and industries.
It must be designed to serve not only those who transition directly from high school to college, but also those who enter postsecondary education and training while working or after spending time in the workplace.
Best practice research about institutional and program practices that have proven successful should be used to boost participation and success rates.
- Design and deliver programs that ensure that every Californian has access to the basic skills needed to pursue postsecondary education.
As federal economic recovery funds are invested, a large share of the jobs they create will be middle-skill jobs building and repairing roads, manufacturing renewable energy products and caring for our aging population. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's, projects that by the fourth quarter of 2012, stimulus spending from ARRA will substantially improve employment nationwide in several industries dominated by middle-skill jobs, including
- construction (802,800 jobs),
- manufacturing (589,700) and
- transportation and warehousing (129,600).
Despite these numbers, policymakers at both the federal and state levels have increasingly
focused on college and university education, without proportionate attention to middle-skill jobs, and the education and training investments needed to ensure that workers have the skills they need to succeed in these vital occupations. This represents a lost opportunity to invest in our economy, both the immediate recovery and our long-term economic future.
High Growth, Local Jobs
The report predicts above-average growth
in positions including dental hygienists, respiratory therapists,
emergency medical technicians and industrial machinery mechanics
through 2016.
Middle-skill workers are the police officers and fire fighters who keep us safe. They are the medical technicians and echnologists who keep us healthy. They are the air traffic controllers, electricians, and mechanics who keep our infrastructure up and running. They are local, hands-on jobs, meaning they are unlikely to be outsourced to other countries.
Creation of a "green economy" and "green jobs."
But what are those jobs? the skills needed in the green economy closely mirror the middle-skill demands of the labor market as a whole. Greener Pathways examines emerging opportunities in the energy efficiency, wind, and biofuels sectors, and urges stakeholders to scale up green job training by leveraging existing state and local workforce development systems
One study from the University of California-Berkeley found that "The renewable energy sector generates more jobs per megawatt of power installed, per unit of energy produced, and per dollar of investment, than the fossil fuel-based energy sector."15 That study further found that environmental protection laws are not the reason why jobs in the fossil fuel industry have declined in recent years.
California has been experiencing a shortage of middle-skill workers.
In 2007, about 50% of all jobs were classified as middle-skill, but only 38% of California workers had the education and training required to fill those positions.
In reality, the gap was likely even greater in certain industries because many workers trained to the middle-skill level--and even those with bachelor's degrees--did not have the specific technical skills needed. This means that thousands of well-paid and rewarding jobs were going unfilled in the state, in industries that are and will be essential to California's economic portfolio.
A Growing Middle-Skill Challenge
But our state will see a significant change in these
trends over the subsequent fifteen years, when the proportion of
low-skill workers in California's workforce is likely to increase at
the same time that the percentage of high-skill workers is projected to
decline.
HIGH: The number of workers prepared for high-skill jobs rose by 4% between 1990
and 2005. However, their ranks are expected to fall by 3% by the year 2020
MIDDLE: Workers prepared for middle-skill jobs fell slightly
between 1990 and 2005. Their numbers are expected to drop more rapidly
through 2020, for a fall of one percent. California educational projections suggest the shortage of workers to fill middle-skill jobs that our state saw in 2007 is likely to worsen. During the fifteen years between 1990 and 2005, the California saw an increase in residents with educational attainment at the high-skill level.
The decline in middle-skill workers will continue at an increased pace.
LOW: After falling by 3.7 percent since 1990, the number of workers educated at the low-skill level is expected to rise by 3.9% by the year 2020
Meanwhile, California's share of the nation's immigration is falling at all levels. As more California-born residents stay and fewer people migrate to the Golden State, we must make greater investments in preparing our workforce for the jobs that are available here.
Basic Skills Are at Emergency Levels!
The National Assessment of Adult Literacy (NAAL) indicates only a slight increase in quantitative (math) skills between 1992 and 2003, and no improvement at all for prose and document literacy. Nationally, 93 million adults lack the literacy to participate in postsecondary education and training. This means that tens of millions of Americans cannot access middle-skill education and training programs because they lack basic English and math skills, or do not have a high school education. Even for those who enter postsecondary education, basic skills can be a barrier to success.
Remedial Education
Nearly two-thirds of community college students nationwide
must take at least one remedial course.
In California, those rates have been estimated to be as high as 75 to 90%.
Like the nation as a whole, California faces substantial challenges when it comes to basic skills, only on a much greater scale than many states.
More than 4,000,000 (four million!) adult Californians age 18 to 64
do not have a high school diploma.
The national version of this report, America's Forgotten Middle-Skill Jobs, is available at www.Skills2Compete.org.
To learn more about the Skills2Compete-California campaign, go to
www.Skills2Compete.org/California.